AFC Quarterbacks Dominate NFL MVP Odds for 2023
It’s not terribly surprising to see the three most popular AFC quarterbacks – Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen – at the top of the table here. NFL fans and bettors alike widely consider these three players to be among the best quarterbacks in football right now.
Mahomes, who is the reigning MVP, is an understandably popular choice among both sharp and public bettors. At the BetMGM online sportsbook, 8.7% of all NFL MVP tickets are on Mahomes, which trails four other players. However, Mahomes’ 15.3% of the MVP handle share is the highest of any player.
There may be some reticence to bet on a back-to-back MVP performance, but bettors with larger bankrolls are clearly unafraid to go back to the well with Mahomes. There is even precedent for repeat MVP performances, since Aaron Rodgers won the award in consecutive years as recently as 2020-21.
Burrow is second in both tickets (11%) and handle (13.7%).
Allen opened as a +650 co-favorite with Burrow and Mahomes but has slipped down just a bit after betting appetites were more moderate. His 4.6% of tickets is behind four other AFC quarterbacks alone, including Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence.
Jalen Hurts’ MVP Odds Demonstrate Public Popularity
Few NFL players have had a better run these last several months than Jalen Hurts. A strong finish to his third NFL season netted an NFC Championship for his team and a massive contract extension for himself.
Whether or not the Eagles will continue to thrive with much of their salary cap now invested in Hurts is an open question. However, Hurts’ dual-threat nature, lower-body strength, and recent contract news has highlighted him as a clear public betting target.
There’s still a lot of time left in the market here, but Hurts has emerged as a clear betting favorite among ticket-holders, even if the odds don’t yet reflect that. With 14% of all bets, Hurts is the single most popular NFL MVP ticket at BetMGM.
There is some logic to this. In MVP races across most sports, players often need an initial season to pop onto MVP radars, then a follow-up season to earn the award. With Hurts fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, he’s clearly proved he belongs in the conversation.
There’s also his schedule to consider, which should provide plenty of opportunities for wins and stat accumulation in a top-heavy NFC.
But since the Eagles match up against the AFC East this year, that means he’ll have head-to-head opportunities against Allen, Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa – all fellow MVP contenders.
There are also some downsides to consider. Hurts is +1000, which is fifth in the table. That seems like an awfully steep price for someone who’s only really had one strong year of professional performance. A step back seems just as likely – if not more likely – than a step forward.
NFL MVP Odds 2023: Valuable Longshots To Consider
If you’re considering a position in the NFL MVP odds market for this year, it’s generally worth it to spend a dollar or two on longshot positions. If one of them works out, there can be some immaculate hedge opportunities down the line.
Generally speaking, I think there are so many good quarterbacks in the AFC that they’re all going to beat each other up. It’ll be hard for any one of them to stand out. With many priced at +2000 or lower, that makes it hard to bet on anyone but a prime candidate like Mahomes or Burrow.
One exception might be Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson at +3000. The Browns figure to have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL this year, which means Watson should have plenty of protection in the pocket.
Cleveland is also likely to lean on that line and dial up some designed quarterback runs to make use of Watson’s athleticism.
Because of injuries on the field and deeply poor decisions off the field, it’s been several years since anyone has seen a full season of football from Watson. From a pure handicapping standpoint, that opens up quite a perception gap. A vintage season from Watson could certainly be MVP-caliber, which is not something bettors can say about every quarterback in the NFL.
Another strategy in the same range could be to lean toward an NFC quarterback that could pile up stats and wins against a manageable schedule. That could be Seattle quarterback Geno Smith (+3000), who PFF graded as a top-10 quarterback in 2022.
Smith finished with higher PFF grades than Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Justin Fields, and Rodgers, among others. All five of those guys are 2023 MVP contenders whose odds are either equal to or above Smith in the table.
The risk, of course, is that Smith is a journeyman with only one good year to his name. As is the case with Hurts, some regression is more likely than not. But on the off chance that he gets even better in Year 2 with Seattle, the ceiling for an improved Seahawks offense could be very high indeed. Did I mention he’ll have Jaxon Smith-Njigba now, too?
One last name I like is Christian McCaffrey at 100-to-1. This is a true longshot, as I have already laid out the barren history of non-quarterbacks in this award market in recent years.
But I think multi-use guys like McCaffrey offer unique X-factor qualities in an MVP race that traditional running backs and receivers do not. McCaffrey will play his first full season in 2023 under Kyle Shanahan’s powerful offense, which means he is likely to play the best season of his professional career.
On a team where a young, inexperienced quarterback is likely to run Shanahan’s offense quietly and efficiently, it’s a guy like McCaffrey who’s likely to pop as the true star of the offense. That’s different than most other teams, where this sort of cultural orbit nearly always centers around the quarterback by merit of the modern NFL.
Because of his talent and his team circumstances, McCaffrey is absolutely worth a shot at such a lucrative payout.
